zonio

hapa: Tablets: Always Innovating Touch Book Is Part-Netbook,...

Mon, 02 Mar 2009 09:02:05 -0500

Tablets: Always Innovating Touch Book Is Part-Netbook, Part-Tablet, Open Source Frankenstein

I’m actually a fan of this tablet form factor for netbook-class electronics. At an expected $300, I think we are still about 40% to 50% too pricey to approach mass adoption, but we are 2 to 3 years away from ubiquitos networked, rich-GUI access to cloud-driven application experiences. This will change the way consumers consume info/tainment at home much like the iPhone, G1, Storm, and Palm will have drastically changed the way we consume the same on-the-go.

I actually think the at-home applications for this class of computing power has a larger market than the on the go applications. The netbook itself is such a dubious concept in my opinion. You’ll see those form factors and implementations soon cannibalized by the smartphone market from below and the full blown notebook market from above.

However, the at-home ambient applications such an info/tainment device such as photo-frame, weather beacon, stock market watcher, life-feed alerts, etc, will be further augmented by applications like whole home audio, video telephony, home control, energy monitoring, etc… and lead to a much more useful application of this class of electronics.

No longer do computers at home need to be thought of as workstations or home media servers. Even before the stillborn home theater PC takes hold, I think we may see the advent of the home info/tainment “pad”, or “frame”, or “panel” and every room in the house will have it’s own targeted class of device.

The real opprtunity here is the software. The hardware sourcing for any of these applications will be a simple matter of spec effort and logistics. The key will be driving the right user experience via a software interface that is tailored just right for the set of applications, and for the less tech-sophisticated domestic users.

A small "f".

Sat, 21 Feb 2009 00:30:52 -0500

When I said “Fuckit” a few days ago, it really should have been a small “f.” I’ve received a few inquiries trying to understand if my skunk works had in fact been skunked, or not…

The cleats aren’t hung up, but the strategic focus is changing even as we speak. I went into this zonio experiment with a pressing need to get a particular product concept built. It was a cool product too. I am still a big believer in the design, but I am not sure there is the right kind of capital ready to be put to work in a fashion I am willing to move forward. Honestly speaking, there was such a temptation to build a product concept based on technologies that I knew intimately, but now I am finding that a lot of that desire came from the safety of it. I was also spending an awful lot of time and mental energy trying to move too many partners who did not share my urgency or risk assessment of the opportunity. Therefore it was a challenging nut to crack. Top it all off, and my largest competitive advantage was first-mover advantage… not terribly robust in the CE market.

Another confounding issue was that within the next month or so, the likelihood of getting an early 2010 product built and placed is prohibitively slim. Making this an even more weighty condition is the fact that there has been an incredible amount of movement and progress in enabling technologies for a competitive architecture that will be hard to compete against. I will talk more about this later. I am actually leaning towards documenting exactly what I believe the initial product concept should be based on these evermore market-ready technologies. It won’t seem groundbreaking to those who are familiar with the technologies, but it may prove to be a unique perspective on a set of technologies that are currently targeted at a totally different set of consumer use cases.

My recent learnings and acceptance of some harsh economic realities will weigh on what kind of marketing strategy and partnerships will need to exist to pull it off.

I think Hulu and Boxee might be very clever!

Sat, 21 Feb 2009 00:08:39 -0500

hapa:

… and not “clever” in the purely flattering British sense… I’m starting to wonder whether Hulu and Boxee are really duping us here.

Now, OBVIOUSLY Hulu will be back up and running on Boxee very soon. I mean, how could Hulu be sooo stupid as to so blatantly disenfranchise their users? …particularly, the key influencer set… tech savy, early adoptor, tweeting, blogging, word-of-mouth generators.

So while we’re looking forward to the end of our little interruption in service, consider this:

On their own, Hulu and Boxee, both, were mainly in early-adoptor-zone (EAZ). You could argue that Hulu after the Superbowl ad, was trying to cross the cha…. (egh… just can’t say it). Anyway. In a classic example of “the whole being greater than the sum of the parts,” when embroiled in a little geek-news drama, you get an ignition effect that helps get both Boxee and Hulu’s individual stories out to a larger audience.

See for yourself, take a look at Google Trends for February (Hulu in red, Boxee in blue), and the YTD running chart below.

The recent press coverage has Hulu’s news references exceeding the lead up to the Super Bowl, and we’ll see if the search volume gets a bigger uptick than it has so far… though it is noticable, but not dramatic.

Even better is the blog trends chart (Hulu in blue, Boxee in red) from Technorati:

Clearly the largest beneficiery has been Boxee. They have more news reference and blog mentions than they have had in their history, and their search index is only modestly lower than during their “soft” launch late last Fall and when they were name dropping with Netflix and Joost in what very well could have been a paid press campaign (not sure).

That they’re the good-guy in this melee, it leads me to think that they will let it run its course and continue to benefit from the chatter. I love Boxee, and much of their value is in the social networking aspects… so getting more eyeballs (and one would hope, users) like this is a stroke of cunning genius, or amazing luck.

Now, how long do we have to wait for Hulu to make their big magnanamous move and finally side with their users???

Data points to Android

Sat, 14 Feb 2009 01:16:54 -0500

I’m believing more in the power of Android. I suspect that in 5 years, there will be an android-enabled device in every room of my home.

The CE world as we’ve known it is gone. I actually think MS and Apple have lots of be concerned about.

"Fuckit."

Sat, 14 Feb 2009 01:13:17 -0500

“Fuckit.”

- Me

It's a strange place I'm in...

Wed, 28 Jan 2009 23:13:16 -0500

This week has been filled with a lot of out-of-box thinking… and I’ll tell you why.

I’ve gotten some very good feedback that has made me rethink how I should go about funding my idea. There are basically a few paths I can go down:

Raise an angel round from friends, family
Get funded as a work-for-hire by a company who wants to build my product
Get a trial investment from a company looking to “test” this product category. Seek a share of upside, and offer a downside protection.
Seek an alternative role within a similar value chain which might include various things like consult, go to work for one of my current partners, etc.

Without getting into too much detail and giving up too much irrelavent specifics, let’s just say I am leaning toward 2 and 3. I have a company in mind, and if we can agree on a deal that makes sense it is probably the best way to get a piece of hardware built. I think 4 could work, but it would obviously depend on the partner and their willingness to bring me into their house.

For completeness sake, option 1 would be problematic, as I am becoming less attracted to the prospects of trying to launch a new hardware brand that is going after the market I am focused on. The amount of investment and goodwill required to have an effective marketing channel is something that takes a long time and large amounts of capital to build. I am not sure this economy is ready to support such ventures. The alternative of self-funding and building a solo operation invariably means you will have a small direct channel and a niche market. While this is one path that I admire and have seen work for certan folks, I am not prepared to operate something like this at this stage… I would prefer doing so at a time where I could rely on fewer outside dollars, and have only myself to be held accountable to. These smaller types of operations are suited to labors of love, and I guess I am not entirely done with the larger rat race… for now.

Another fact of the matter is I am running out of runway. Certain developments will or will not occur in the next few weeks and if they don’t go their way to kicking me off, but rather kick me out… then I need my plan B lined up. So I am budgeting a certain amount of time to that end and have seen a couple paths that are indeed attractive. I was telling a friend tonight that I have 3 options… 2 in the CE industry, 1 in another industry, and I guess a 4th if you include moving to an island and becoming a bartender.

Walking the razor's edge...

Fri, 23 Jan 2009 18:59:27 -0500

Trying to create a startup venture can be a gut wrenching process. I remember in the founding days of Avnera, some VC we were courting came into the lunch room and wanted to speak to the entire team. A totally ego-maniacal thing to do in retrospect — more on that later — but it was his chance to tell us an anecdote that stuck with me, though it was put quite melodramatically… and it went a little something like this:

“in startups, you will experience life’s highest highs and lowest lows”

Let me add my take on this:

First, this resonated with me at the time. I definitely was living the roller-coaster that was Avnera those days. Days of good news, breakthroughs, or great ideas via collaboration were some great times… and days of frustration, toil, and failure were, conversely, quite rough and discouraging.
Second, it’s overstated. Life’s Highest highs? Lowest lows? Not really. It’s entirely possible to let these emotions color the rest of your life, but mature entrepreneurs (and in my experience, the serially successful ones) know that life goes on whether you fail or succeed in business… and personal happiness or despair beyond either are no guarantee. This VC who sat down to pontificate and tell us all how much he knew about “our pain” was either full of it, or needed to get a life. I hope he has. The roller coaster of the start-up life should be a manageable ride - something that can be sequestered to the “professional” part of one’s existence.
Third, for a critically-minded person, the start-up “highs” are far out-numbered by the “lows.” I think this comes about from the focus on finding shortcomings in things, striving for improving current conditions and being hyper-analytical — even paranoid — about what it is you are setting out to accomplish. And so…
Fourth, countering one’s own critical mindset (required to manage responsibly) with the hope and faith (required to embark down an entrepreneurial path) in one’s ability to achieve something new is how one walks the razor’s edge during a start-up process. Letting discouraging events result in abandonment of faith in the opportunity is how stillborn startups happen. The flipside is letting stubborn belief in a bad idea lead to a poor deployment of scarce resources.

Delicate, delicate.

Today, I had a chat with a very seasoned and accomplished guy in the space. He currently invests (VC-like), but realistically not at the stage and amounts I am currently seeking. His feedback was heartening and disheartening… but all fair and balanced, even if charted by his own battle scars. A stimulating event.

So today has become a day of digestion. My thoughts are finally coalescing to where I see more clearly the chunks of value that are out there to monetize. I am just trying to get my products built in a way that returns enough of that value to myself and my investors. A key part of this process is identifying and convincing the right investors. I have a pretty good of who that might be… now for the convincing…

A day of tag-you're-it

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 17:13:22 -0500

Today was a day of email and phone tagging. One investor, one design consultant, and one supplier. Hope tomorrow I have better luck connecting.

I sent on my financial forecast and investment requirements to my lawyer who is helping me draft a term sheet to offer potential investors. Basically there are two capital raising options, one which is more equity up front, with no need for any trade credit or short term debt in year one, or less equity up front, with some need for ST debt. We’ll see what the venture capital markets are willing to bare.

I also had some fun tweaking my logo a bit. I am no graphic artist, but every now and then I stumble onto something that serves the purpose. Right now, I like my little alien for the more ethereal applications of zonio’s brand identity. For professional purposes I have a cleaner, simpler, and perhaps more sustainable logo.. to be shared another time.

A varied day...

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 15:37:00 -0500

I really can’t tell if all the news of the markets emanating from CNN and CNBC as I work is helpful, or deflating… at the very least it reaffirms the situation and if I believe the re-blogged quotes made earlier today, then it should be encouraging, or motivating. I’ll go with that…

Today I am trying to put the “finishing” touches on my financial forecast for zonio. The point is to have a basis for how much I am asking the early investors for… of course I don’t want to ask for too much, but perhaps worse, is not asking for enough. ;-)

I’m also perusing my savings accounts, both retirement and otherwise, to determine where my next tranche of personal investment is going to come from, i.e. how I should pay the bills.

I am also sending out some pings and re-pings to those who may serve to help me bootstrap this opportunity via consulting work.

There are also some re-pings needed for a couple very busy people who may need to see me at the top of their in-boxes again after the long weekend and public distractions of yesterday.

I am also “organizing” my blog properties. Making sure my voice for each one is segmented properly. As it is:

wirelessaudioblog: is my technical, consumer audio, and industry-watch blog
hapa.tumblr: is my personal blog, whatever is fit to print I suppose. It’s also the chief aggregator for my other web 2-ish things like twitter, youtube, flickr, etc.
zonio.tumblr: this particular adventure of mine, being a entrepreneur at a strange time…

If the start-up activity is successful, the zonio blog project will probably morph gradually into my company’s blog where my community will have seen the start-up process much earlier than is typical for a community-connected company these days. If the start-up takes another route, doesn’t get funded, gets absorbed by another company, etc… the zonio blog project will probably then be “complete” in that the story will have its end.

Either outcome, this blog will prove to be a success in my mind, and it will stand as a unique witness to this odd little professional phase I find myself in.

"In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must..."

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 15:14:23 -0500

“In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted — for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things — some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.”

- Text of President Barack Obama’s inaugural address

You heard the man, America—the way out of our collective malaise is through hard work, risk taking, and innovation. Let’s get down to business!

(via buzzandersen)

(via hapa)

"As the fire continues to rage in financial markets, it is hard to imagine when Opportunity will..."

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 15:09:04 -0500

“As the fire continues to rage in financial markets, it is hard to imagine when Opportunity will reappear. But the truth is when everyone sees Opportunity; they are only seeing the reflection. True Opportunity appears at the market bottom, not at the top. It’s times like these that test what you believe in, and I believe in the Business Cycle, Human Creativity, and the stimulative effect of massive Government spending. 2009 and 2010 will be great times to invest to reap the benefits in 2012-2014, for those who can judge both business risk and liquidity risk, and have the courage of their convictions.”

- EarlyStageVC: The Coming Venture Capital Boom (via fred-wilson)

"companies who can build authentic, honest, open, collaborative relationships with consumers are..."

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 15:06:45 -0500

“companies who can build authentic, honest, open, collaborative relationships with consumers are significantly more profitable (and sustainably profitable) than companies who treat consumers deceptively, antagonistically, and manipulatively.”

- Why (Real) Relationships Matter - Umair Haque (via fred-wilson)

How it's gonna go down...

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 18:41:00 -0500

I’ve decided to start this new blog, zonio. Named after an “idea” I have, it will be a holding plot, my stake of real estate on this burgeoning tumblr landscape. My immediate purpose, or theme, will be to chrono-log my current adventure, which for the time being is that of being for lack of a more appropos term, unemployed.

Let me outline my profile:

I have no paycheck. I left my full time job at Avnera in December 2008.
I have 6 figures of school loans
I have less than a 50% debt/savings ratio. Considerably less so.
I recently moved into a condo in NYC and for the first time I have a mortgage, and thankfully a bona fide tax deduction.
I am single. I am in a relationship.
I am 33.
I have an ivy league undergraduate education from Penn in engineering.
I have a masters degree from MIT in engineering
I have a MBA from Harvard

I am currently trying to raise seed capital for my new business. It is a hardware business opportunity in consumer electronics, audio specifically. Now I know what you’re thinking - I have no chance. Too much competition, hardware business models are too risky… Well I of course beg to differ.

I am working on making sure potential investors know that it is not merely a hardware business model. Yes I will be building hardware. But like many successful hardware devices, they rely heavily on the software that gives them life. Much of this software will be owned by me, dispensed by me and partners, and if all goes according to plan and design, a source of revenue for myself and my partners. Like any innovative product, there is disruption to be made, and new ways of thinking about business to grok…

In fact, I do not enter this space blindly. I have spent the last 5 years helping Avnera bring reallyl innovative, market ready technology to end-users by working on marketing our solutions to device makers and in many instances helping them build devices. After helping more than 25 devices reach the market, delivering new user experiences, I’ve confirmed that I (at least in the past) had the ability to discern what would work in today’s market. I also consistantly make good calls about what’s a fanciful leap and what’s a practical baby step, and most importanly, I am confident I have an idea of what the market will want somewhere in between those bounds, within the next couple years - where venture capital can be put to work to deliver something incumbants cannot/will not, and where the opportunity is devoid of prohibitive risk to make such an investment foolhardy.

Myself, well, I’ve already made my investment, and continue to do so. I’m hoping I can pull this effort together, raise the capital, and build this product, as it will fundamentally change the way consumers consume their digital audio. But this is the most I will talk about the business itself.

In the meantime, zonio blog will be about what it means to be a entrepreneur in this economy, in America, in “hardware.” It will be about the personal process of being out on the limb in blustering stormy weather. Stay tuned…